February 5, 2012


Multifamily Comeback In 2011?

The CCIM Institute’s magazine, “Commercial Investment Real Estate” reports the following:

“The strongest net effective rent gains in history may occur between 2011 and 2015 as 75 million echo boomers finally can afford to strike out on their own, says RREEF Research.  This pent-up demand along with a below-average supply, limited by financing constraints and fewer construction starts in 2010 and 2011, will boost rents quickly.”

The Phoenix market has depressed pricing for multifamily, especially the smaller properties that saw a huge speculative run up during the recent boom.

With the depressed pricing, high cap rates and the coming “pent up demand” maybe now and the next year or two will be a rare opportunity with a quick payoff.  It’s sure starting to look this way.

Where Are All The Fourplexes: Sales Increase And Supply Dwindles Away.

It’s a busy market out there.  All the good stuff seems to be disappearing : from good condos, homes, to small multifamily.

The supply of multifamily fourplexes is quickly dwindling sway.  Most of the good stuff is selling quickly as investors realize how good they have it now.

Except that properties will not wait for them.  There is plenty demand now that supply is removed within 2 months on average and good ones sell in a matter of a week or two.

There are 235 active fourplexes.

89 are Pending

83 Sold in the last 30 day.

Another 21 are Pending with instructions to leave Active.

This puts the supply of fourplexes in Greater Phoenix at 2.9 Months.

Multifamily To Recover Faster From Current Downturn.

Some news purporting the strength of multifamily in the next phase of the cycle.

Housing experts predict that multi-family rental properties and apartments will recover fastest from the current downturn, followed by housing in cities that didn’t overbuild.

The market is likely to hit bottom in the next few months, says Bernard Markstein, senior economist and director of forecasting for the National Association of Home Builders.

“Next year will see slow but steady improvement, as home builders are controlling their inventory,” Markstein says.

Apartments and other multi-family residences will snap back quickly once businesses start hiring again, predicts Victor Calanog, director of research at Reis.

Baby boomers looking for retirement homes and first-time home buyers also will lead the way out of the decline, predicts Bill Singer, a securities attorney and trader who is a member of Forbes.com’s panel of financial gurus.

Source: Forbes.com, Madalina Iacob (03/18/2009)

In Greater Phoenix we did overbuild but in certain sub-markets we did not. While there is plenty of hosing, land and lots with pipes sticking out of the ground ready to be built once the demand picks up, not everyone will be as eager to live on the outskirts: it will take a while if ever for people to get comfortable, en mass, with the idea again.

The central location, Scottsdale, Phoenix, Tempe don’t have much room to grow except infill plus the population is increasing naturally plus the draw of a reviving urban city. These will help sustain and grow the demand for multi-family housing in Phoenix.

While rents in many areas have decreased they are holding steady in the urban areas. Once the market picks up, higher prices will keep people from being able to buy a home or condo. Plus as the economy becomes more mobile and agile there is no need for a growing population to even own real estate. Owning is not fore everyone and this maybe a realization that finally takes hold: for many it’s better to rent and there is nothing wrong with that.